2) Maye must hold up vs. vaunted Denver pass rush
The pass protection for Drake Maye has not been excellent in two postseason games, allowing 10 sacks and 31 pressures on 66 dropbacks. The MVP-candidate Maye has fumbled six times in the two games, and Denver’s rush is as dangerous a pass-rush team in the league, harassing Josh Allen into four turnovers last week, even with some big plays allowed. Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto vs. Patriots rookie LT Will Campbell is a potentially exploitable matchup for Denver after Campbell struggled vs. Houston. Maye’s regular-season path might have been easier than other quarterback’s in the regular season, but he’s faced two tough defenses in the playoffs — and the Patriots’ offensive results have been hot and cold. They need more consistent production from wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry, Maye’s two leading targets. Both have scored in the playoffs, but they’ve combined for only 10 catches for 125 yards on 18 targets. Kayshon Boutte has stepped up in the pass game, and Rhamondre Stevenson has seen his role grow, but for the Patriots to string successful drives together, they might also need contributions from wideouts Demario Douglas and Kyle Williams. The Broncos forced five Buffalo turnovers last week after coaxing only 14 during the regular season, with no more than two in any game previously. The Patriots know they can’t waste possessions and fall in an early hole, or Denver’s pass rush could be even more of a problem.
3) Do Patriots have a run-game advantage?
On the surface, the Patriots would appear to have an edge in the ground game. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has been held in check in two postseason games, but Stevenson has been highly efficient, and Maye is a weapon as a scrambler and occasional designed runner. The Broncos’ rush defense was one of the best in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 91.1 rush yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. But the Bills ran for 183 yards last week in Denver, averaging 5.1 yards per clip, and mobile quarterbacks have given Denver some issues this season. On the flip side, the Broncos have had to forge a run game since J.K. Dobbins’ foot injury, most often relying on rookie RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin, along with Nix’s scrambling. With Nix out, facing a tough New England front that’s allowed 67.5 rush yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry in two playoff games, the challenge appears difficult, even with Denver’s strong offensive line. However, there’s hope that Dobbins could return after being out since Week 10. Getting him back would be a huge development in both the run and pass games, even if Harvey has been their primary receiving back this season. The Broncos could have limited pass-game weapons with a few receivers battling injuries, so adding one more veteran weapon in Dobbins – who was on pace for a 1,300-yard rushing season before getting hurt – would make everyone’s job easier, especially Jarrett Stidham in the toughest test of his career.
